Which way will Tarrant County, a pivotal election battleground, swing in 2024?
FORT WORTH – With the U.S. Senate race pitting Colin Allred against Ted Cruz leading the fight, Tarrant County stands as one of the most crucial political battlegrounds in Texas.
Once a stronghold for Republican votes, Dallas’ western neighbor reflects the shifting political landscape in Texas, especially as an influx of new residents brings diversity and unpredictability to the region.
This significance was evident last Saturday, as both Republicans and Democrats held competing events to kick off the final month of campaigning ahead of the November election. Cruz energized GOP supporters at a Keller barbecue restaurant, while Allred rallied Democrats at a Fort Worth honky tonk.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, visiting Arlington, emphasized that Texas is the linchpin of the upcoming election.
With a population of 2.1 million, the Tarrant County vote could be pivotal in determining whether Cruz retains his Senate seat or if Allred can become the first Democrat to win a statewide race in three decades. Observers will be closely watching to see if the county remains light red or shifts closer to blue.
Cruz and Allred both articulated the importance of securing Tarrant County and surrounding areas.
“This is a battle between sane and crazy,” Cruz declared at Outpost 36 BBQ in Keller, stating, “This race is about keeping Texas, Texas.”
Allred echoed this sentiment, framing the election as a critical choice for Texans: “We’ve got one month, one month to stand up for the state that we know we are,” he stated at Tulips FTW.
Both parties recognize the high stakes involved. Tarrant County Republican Party Chairman Bo French acknowledged the challenges at the Cruz rally, stating, “Tarrant County is in a precarious position. I’m gonna tell you, we have a lot of work to do.”
“Tarrant County is truly the biggest battleground in the state of Texas,” remarked state Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie, at Allred’s gathering. “This is going to be a close race, and so every vote is going to count,” he asserted, predicting that winning Tarrant County would signal Allred’s victory.
The Shifting Political Landscape
Described as the largest Republican-controlled county in America, Tarrant County has seen its status evolve. It notably reflects a move away from being a solid GOP bastion. In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly won the county in his Senate bid against Cruz, who ultimately secured the overall race by 2.6 percentage points. In 2020, Joe Biden edged out Donald Trump by just over 1,800 votes in Tarrant, although Trump won Texas by 5.6 percentage points.
Republicans rebounded in 2022, with Governor Greg Abbott defeating O’Rourke in Tarrant County by 4 percentage points, while Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton won by narrow margins of 2 points each.
Despite their victories, Republicans have faced challenges at the top of the ballot while succeeding in down-ballot races. The GOP won all five targeted House seats in 2020 and secured every countywide contest, as former Tarrant County Republican Party executive director Jeremy Bradford noted.
“It’s a battleground, but it’s still a red county,” Bradford stated, reflecting confidence in the Republican stronghold, despite recent Democratic gains.
Democrats see a tantalizing opportunity for change, driven by demographic shifts that now include a growing number of Black and Latino voters, along with new residents. Matt Angle, from the Lone Star Project, highlighted that recent elections signal progress for Democrats in Tarrant County.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Tarrant County experienced a significant population increase from 2000 to 2022, with almost 700,000 new residents, second only to Harris County.
“There’s no question that Tarrant County is a linchpin county,” Angle said, emphasizing its status as a bellwether for broader state trends. He called for greater investment from Democrats in the area.
Meanwhile, Allred and Cruz energized their bases during weekend rallies, each delivering sharp critiques of the other. Allred zeroed in on Cruz’s actions surrounding the 2020 election, arguing that he undermined democracy.
Criticizing Cruz for his actions during a deadly winter storm in 2021, Allred recalled, “If when we need you most, you go to Cancun, you have to lose your job.”
Attacks on Cruz were echoed by several Democrats, including former state Senator Wendy Davis, who emphasized women’s reproductive rights and criticized Cruz’s endorsement of recent anti-abortion measures.
In contrast, Cruz focused his message on energizing conservatives and taking aim at Allred’s stances on key issues like border security and participation in women’s sports. Cruz organized a 50-city bus tour across Texas to engage supporters in the lead-up to the election.
Cruz’s Ongoing Campaign Efforts
With polls indicating a close race against Allred, Cruz’s rhetoric around “radical Democrats” intensifies as he seeks to galvanize the GOP base. The stakes are high for both parties in retaining Texas as a red state.
Speaker Johnson’s visit to Arlington, framed as a kickoff for a nationwide series of rallies, solidifies the strategic importance of Texas in the broader national political landscape. Johnson underscored the need for Republicans to mobilize voters in the state, declaring, “You can’t take it for granted. Texas is a red state, but it won’t be unless we act.”
As election day approaches, all eyes remain on Tarrant County, where the dynamics of a changing electorate could redefine the political landscape of Texas.
