Help from Asean nations to counter China is unlikely: Ex-Philippine Navy officer

Manila should strengthen coordination with Southeast Asian nations regarding its policy towards China, according to a retired Philippine naval officer. Engagement solely with Washington may provoke stronger resistance from Beijing in the contested South China Sea.

“I believe that we made some mistakes … we could have engaged at least most of the ASEAN member states that are surrounding the South China Sea more effectively and we could have consulted them regarding our actions because they do not agree with our China policy,” stated Rommel Ong, a former vice-commander of the Philippine Navy.

Despite this sentiment, Ong expressed skepticism about the Philippines’ ability to rally ASEAN member states to support Manila’s concerns. “We have to accept that China has successfully divided ASEAN,” he remarked during a discussion. “The efficacy of China’s geo-economic strategy in ASEAN has worked well for them, allowing them to exert considerable influence over various member states, especially their political and economic elites.”

China and several ASEAN nations, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines, have overlapping maritime claims in the resource-rich South China Sea, with Manila being particularly assertive in its opposition to Beijing’s actions.

The Chinese government has accused Washington of backing Manila in the South China Sea encounters. However, some Southeast Asian nations fear that if the Philippines strengthens its coordination with the U.S., China may respond with unilateral actions regarding their own claims in the area.

In a recent development that could exacerbate tensions, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin disclosed the formation of Task Force-Ayungin, which includes American military personnel and is named after the Philippine designation for the Second Thomas Shoal.

This atoll in the Spratly Islands, known as Renai Reef in China, has become a critical flashpoint, especially after Beijing disrupted resupply missions by Manila to a small contingent of Filipino marines stationed there.

During a visit to the Philippines last month, Austin announced that the U.S. government had provided the Philippine Navy with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels for its operations in the South China Sea and pledged that “many more” would arrive before President Joe Biden’s administration concludes.

Ong, who retired in 2019, does not foresee significant changes in Washington’s policy towards Manila under the incoming president, suggesting that Biden’s approach is likely to mirror that of President Trump. “We worked effectively with President Trump during his first term, and I believe that Biden’s policy continues along the same lines, so I don’t anticipate any major shifts,” he noted.

However, Ong raised concerns about the depth of the U.S.’s engagement on Southeast Asian issues. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East may complicate Washington’s allocation of resources. Additionally, the absence of free trade agreements with Southeast Asian nations could diminish America’s influence in the region.

President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017, a trade deal initiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama. Although the Biden administration rolled out its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework focused on trade and supply chains, it lacks the traditional scope of a comprehensive free trade agreement.

In contrast, China has become a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a substantial trade agreement that includes ten ASEAN member states along with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. Beijing is also pursuing membership in the CPTPP, a trade deal that evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the U.S. exit.

Ong also pointed out Japan’s potential as a counterweight to China’s influence in the region. Japan is a significant source of direct foreign investment for ASEAN and has increased its support for the Philippines, including a reciprocal access agreement signed in July designed to bolster military cooperation through joint exercises and maritime security efforts.

India might also emerge as a competitor to China’s regional dominance, given its long-standing territorial disputes with China over the Himalayas. Ong indicated, “If India can get its act together, it may be able to rival China in terms of genuine economic engagement with ASEAN to foster competition.”