Incoming House Majority Squeezed by Trump’s Planned Appointments

Washington — Republicans have celebrated holding onto their narrow majority in the House, adding to their flip of the Senate and the White House for a trifecta in Washington next year. However, President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of several House Republicans for prominent posts in his administration is drawing from an already shallow pool of talent, temporarily diminishing the GOP majority further as Trump takes office in January.

Only one House race remains undecided nearly four weeks after Election Day, with 99% of the vote counted in California’s 13th Congressional District. Democrat Adam Gray is currently leading GOP Rep. John Duarte. Recently, victories in another California district, along with one in Iowa, brought the balance of power in the chamber to 220-214.

Meanwhile, Trump has appointed several House Republicans to key positions within his administration. Following the election, the president-elect made two selections from the House: GOP conference chair Elise Stefanik of New York as ambassador to the U.N., and Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida as national security adviser.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, outlining the GOP agenda after these appointments, remarked that the president-elect “fully understands and appreciates the math here,” expressing his hope that no additional members would leave the conference for Trump’s team.

“Every single vote will count because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor,” Johnson said.

However, following Trump’s selection of former Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, three vacancies were created early in the incoming Congress. Gaetz resigned his seat shortly after the announcement of his nomination.

After Gaetz’s selection, Johnson commented, “I told President Trump, ‘enough already, you have to give me some relief.’ I have to maintain this majority.”

Although Gaetz has since pulled his name from consideration due to intense scrutiny arising from a House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged misconduct, he has stated that he does not plan to serve in the 119th Congress, leaving Johnson with another unwelcome vacancy.

At the time of Gaetz’s selection, Johnson had expressed optimism that his seat could be filled by the start of the new Congress, citing Florida’s state law process. However, Governor Ron DeSantis set the primary for January 28, with the general election on April 1, which he noted was the earliest possible date for the special election. Florida’s secretary of state indicated that the election would be conducted as quickly as statutorily possible.

Waltz’s seat is also scheduled for a special election on April 1 in Florida. Stefanik’s seat may take up to 90 days to fill after her resignation. This dynamic means that in the early days of Trump’s second term, the Republican majority could be as slim as one or two seats. If all House members are present, Johnson could require the support of every single Republican to pass measures. A three-seat majority would allow for losing a single Republican vote on some issues.

This scenario could pose challenges for the GOP’s ability to act on the mandates they have claimed since Trump’s victory in the presidential election. While Trump secured a significant victory against Vice President Kamala Harris in both electoral and popular votes, he did not command a majority of American voters. Recent years have seen House Republican leadership struggling to maintain unity on key priorities, with a reliable group of dissenters on their right flank.

Conservatives, many of whom are Trump loyalists, may be more inclined to rally under a Trump administration compared to the period under President Biden. However, Johnson might still encounter pushback from moderates within his party.

House Republicans like Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska, David Valadao of California, and Dan Newhouse of Washington have expressed their criticisms of Trump in the past and may diverge from party lines on certain issues, jeopardizing early legislative action. Bacon had refused to support the president-elect during the primary, while Valadao and Newhouse are known as the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Following the election, Rep. Mike Lawler of New York voiced his willingness to speak against Trump amidst GOP control of Washington to prioritize the interests of his constituents.

“When I agree with the president, I’ll say it. If I disagree on something, I will say that, too,” Lawler stated.

Despite these challenges, Trump’s appointments are expected to create a short-lived narrow majority since all three seats are located in securely Republican districts. Johnson has expressed confidence that Republicans can operate effectively with a smaller majority for as long as necessary, pledging to “be very aggressive” and move forward with Trump’s agenda starting on Day One.